Sommaire: 30 June 2008, Brussels - Speech by Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy; "At what point will global warming force lifestyle changes and what will those changes be?"; 9th Debate of the Comment: Visions Series European Voice
Today's focus, I understand, is on "Predicting the Future". I was briefed by my staff that the organisers wanted me to "gaze into the Commission's crystal ball" and tell you what we saw on Climate Change. So out of curiosity I had a look in the encyclopaedia to see what it had to say about crystal balls...
Apparently Celtic Druids in Britain are the earliest known people to have used crystals in divination. And later, during central Europe's medieval period "seers, wizards, sorcerers, psychics, gypsies, fortune tellers, and other types of diviners" also tried their hand. Well I'll leave it up to you to judge how many "seers, wizards and sorcerers" you've come across in your dealings with the Commission, but you'll be relieved to hear, I hope, that we don't do much in the line of divination, but
we do think that our evidence-based analysis is pretty good. So I'll begin with some remarks about the Commission's analysis of Climate Change if I may, before commenting on what we're doing about it now, what more we intend to do and how this will impact on lifestyles.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
First, our vision of the problem in the European Commission:
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts to draw the world's attention to the dangers of global warming. For those of you who've seen Al Gore's film "An inconvenient truth" you'll agree that his analysis of the current situation is striking:
"The planet has a fever", he tells us. "If your baby has a fever, you go to the doctor. If the doctor says you need to intervene here, you don't say "well, I read a science fiction novel that told me it's not a problem". If the crib's on fire,
you don't speculate that the baby is flame retardant. You take action".
Well the Commission is listening to the doctor or scientific community. We believe that the planet does have a fever and we are taking action.
So what's our diagnosis of the fever?
Together with the High Representative, I presented a joint report to the spring European Council on the impact of Climate Change. Its significance, in my view, is the analysis it provides of the implications of Climate Change for international security. Our main findings are that:
Climate change is "a threat multiplier" that will have consequences and increase risks for societies in almost all parts of the globe;
It will spread water and food scarcity, aggravate poverty, worsen health conditions, and possibly generate competition for control of resources;
If the weakest countries cannot adapt, it may lead to more forced migration, radicalisation and State failure;
Failure by the international community to effectively address these tensions may undermine the credibility of the multilateral system and encourage unilateralism.
But the good news, is that the European Union is uniquely well placed to act.
To turn to our action -
As in many other areas there is a direct link between the level of ambition of the EU's internal agenda on climate change and energy and our credibility externally. Our objectives, set out in the new integrated climate change and energy policy agreed at the spring European Council, are ambitious and political commitment to delivering them strong. Our targets include:
- reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by 20% by 2020 - a significant increase on previous commitments - and by 30% if a comprehensive international agreement is reached;
- improving energy efficiency by 20% by 2020; and
- raising the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020.
Key tools for delivering these objectives are already in place. To name but a few:
The European Climate Change Programme which has so far identified 40 areas which can reduce Europe's emissions by up to 16% compared with 1990 figures;
The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme, created in 2005, which is the largest multi-country, multi-sector emissions trading scheme in the world.
A set of measures under the Ecodesign Directive and the EU's Seventh Research Framework Programme to ensure improvements to the most energy-hungry products;
The Energy Taxation Directive which is discouraging pollutant behaviour;
Aviation is being added to the ETS...
Last but not least - energy security. The New Energy Policy for Europe Action Plan, adopted by the European Council in March, aims to guarantee security of supply. Energy was of course a key theme of our discussions at the EU/Russia Summit in Siberia last week.
This brings me onto my next point - External Action. Climate Change is of course a global phenomenon and therefore requires global action. As I have said, our international influence depends on the credibility of our internal agenda. The environmental standards we are setting will set the standard both for imports and exports driving more environmental production in other parts of the world. Europe's "soft power" is real. Just look at the way in which the Mercosur countries have emulated
the EU in creating the possibility for free movement of citizens between countries in the block...
I mentioned that Climate and Energy are part of our dialogue with Russia. This is now the case for all our strategic dialogues with major emitting countries, including China and India, and will be a major theme of our discussions in the G8 in Japan.
Increasingly, we are also directing energy cooperation with countries in our Neighbourhood towards energy efficiency, and renewable energy particularly Solar and Wind power in the Southern Neighbourhood.
The EU is also leading the multilateral response. In Bali last December agreement was reached to launch negotiations on a comprehensive agreement for global action after 2012 and to finalise these negotiations in 2009. This is a major step forward, both in terms of US engagement and that of the major emerging economies.
It is essential that these negotiations are successful. The Commission has therefore made Climate Change one of its main communication priorities. And I have given instructions to key Commission delegations around the world to step up political and public diplomacy work.
I said at the beginning that I would address the question of Lifestyles. I won't dodge that promise. When, you asked me, is global warming going to have an impact on lifestyles. The answer is now and increasingly so. The price of petrol is already boosting the market in energy efficient cars and bikes. The market for renewable energy - for example wind and solar power - is growing. Indeed Climate Change is not all about threats for Europe. There are opportunities too. Just look at the "first
mover" advantage the Danes have secured by becoming market leaders in wind power.
But do our actions have an impact? The answer is yes, but we need to do more both collectively and individually, if we are to reach the ambitious targets we have set. Scientists warn that our window to achieve a radical reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions is only fifteen years.
Current patterns of consumption, particularly in the developed world, are not sustainable and they are one of the main drivers behind the environmental problems we face. With over 6 billion people on the planet our global environmental footprint already exceeds the Earth's biological capacity by about 25%. And we, in Europe, are some of the main culprits. If the rest of the world consumed in the way we do - and the indications are that emerging economies like China and India are beginning to -
then we'd need more than two planet earths to cope. Add to that demographic projections showing that the world's population will grow to 9 billion by 2050 - and you can see that we could be heading for disaster.
Ladies and gentlemen,
So if I look into the crystal ball, I don't see doom and gloom. I see all of us already much more conscious of the need to save energy and changing our behaviour. We are turning down the heating and air-conditioning. We are using a greater range of energy sources. And of course the high cost of hydrocarbons is one of the factors driving this.
I am an incorrigible optimist. I'm confident that we will find new technologies to improve the performance of both traditional sources of energy and renewables. I mentioned solar energy earlier. Personally, I am particularly attracted by its untapped potential. If we can get the cost/benefit balance right, I believe that solar energy will offer huge scope in the years to come.
Ladies and Gentlemen tackling Climate Change and its impact is a major foreign policy challenge of our times.
No doubt many of you will have heard Gandhi's famous saying:
"The future depends on what we do in the present"
Well I believe it does. We have a window of 15 years to act. We all need to act now.
I thank you for your attention.
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