Sommaire: 26 November 2007, Lisbon - Speech by Stavros Dimas, Member of the European Commission, responsible for environment, "The Road to Bali", Lisbon Council
Mr/Madam Chairman
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Three years ago climate change was still seen as a "green issue". It was important - but nowhere near the top of the political agenda. Corporate interest in cutting emissions was limited to a few sectors such as renewable energy. Many companies worried about a potential loss of competitiveness. And a number of influential companies were actively lobbying against legislation to reduce emissions. Some were even funding campaigns to discredit the scientific evidence.
We are now on the final miles of the Road to Bali and it seems that the world has been turned upside down. Prime ministers who oppose Kyoto are being voted out of office - and I would like to publicly congratulate Kevin Rudd on his decision to sign and ratify the Kyoto protocol.
Business is now realising that there are huge competitive opportunities from being at the head of the inevitable shift to the low carbon economy. Instead of scepticism, company leaders are now competing to demonstrate their green credentials.
It is against this context that I would like to thank you for giving me this opportunity to set out the EU's position in view of the crucial UN conference on climate change opening in Bali on 3 December.
The recent Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, has concluded that global warming is now unequivocal and will have far reaching consequences if we do not act urgently. The world temperature is on average three-quarters of a degree Centigrade higher than in 1850 - and the rise is accelerating. The IPCC is warning that over the course of this century the temperature is most likely to rise further by between 1.8 and 4 degrees - and in the worst
case by more than 6 degrees - if we continue with business as usual.
In historical terms, these are enormously rapid changes. Even the lowest likely increase projected by the IPCC would push the world's temperature more than 2 degrees Centigrade above the pre-industrial level. This would take us into the danger zone where irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the global environment become far more likely.
It is the responsibility of our generation to prevent these daunting scenarios from becoming reality. I believe this is also the clear message of the Nobel committee's decision to award this year's Peace Prize to the IPCC and Al Gore for their efforts to further our knowledge and awareness about climate change and to lay the basis for measures to counter it.
The compelling scientific evidence marshalled by the IPCC demands nothing less than an urgent and determined global response. For the EU there is no doubt that this must take the form of a comprehensive and ambitious UN agreement for global action to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the period after 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period ends.
The end of 2012 is just five years away, so time is not on our side. That is why it is essential that the Bali conference reach a consensus to launch negotiations on this future agreement. Bali must also set a clear deadline for completing the negotiations by the end of 2009 so there will be enough time to ratify the new agreement and bring it into force by the end of 2012.
To guide the negotiations there needs to be a 'shared vision' of what the new agreement is seeking to achieve. For the EU it is clear the objective must be to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Centigrade above the pre-industrial temperature. This goal is fully supported by the IPCC's projections of far more dangerous impacts beyond this level.
Keeping within the 2 degrees limit means that global emissions must peak within the next 10 to 15 years and then be cut by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050. This is undoubtedly a huge challenge, but the IPCC backs the Commission's analysis that it is both feasible - using clean technologies already available or in the pipeline - and affordable. In fact, the IPCC estimates that global GDP growth would be trimmed by no more than 0.12 percentage points a year.
We need to compare this with the enormous costs of unabated climate change - at least 5% and perhaps a staggering 20% or more of global GDP annually, according to last year's Stern Review.
Above all, let us not forget that this huge challenge is also a huge opportunity for innovation which can stimulate economic growth, industrial know-how and sustainable employment in Europe and so contribute to realising the ambitions of our Lisbon strategy.
A low carbon economy will be a stimulus to our prosperity, not a brake on growth. As Gordon Brown highlighted in a major speech last week, the overall added value of the low carbon energy sector could be as high as 3 trillion dollars per year worldwide by 2050 and it could create 25 million new jobs.
With the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and the integrated climate and energy strategy endorsed by EU leaders in March, the EU already has a head start on the road towards the low-carbon economy of the future. Early in the new year we will be coming forward with a package of legislative proposals to implement our ambitious targets.
But let me return to the Bali conference. As well as launching negotiations with a clear deadline and the shared vision of keeping global warming to 2 degrees, we need consensus at Bali on what a post-2012 agreement should cover.
The EU is proposing seven key building blocks that should constitute the main elements of the agreement and which should therefore be reflected in the 'Bali Roadmap' that will set the agenda for the negotiations. Let me run over these briefly.
1. The first is the need for binding and absolute emissions reduction commitments by the developed countries, who are responsible for the bulk of today's emissions. Our analysis shows that to start getting global emissions on track to meet the 2 degrees limit, developed countries must reduce their collective emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020. The EU is ready to do so provided other industrialised countries commit to comparable efforts. To underline our determination we have made an
independent commitment - even before negotiations start - to cut our emissions by at least 20%.
2. Second is the need for further fair and effective contributions by developing countries, in particular the emerging economies. We have to encourage and further support them to reduce the emissions intensity of their economic growth. This will require new incentives and flexible types of contributions, as well as greater transfers and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
3. Next, we must extend the use of carbon markets as a key tool to foster the much-needed development and deployment of low carbon investments and technologies. Through the Clean Development Mechanism the carbon market will also help to finance action in developing countries.
4. Fourth, cooperation on research, development and deployment of clean technologies must be scaled up. It is clear that extending carbon markets alone will not be sufficient to bring about the transition to the low-carbon economy that is needed.
5. Next, emissions from international aviation and maritime transport have to be addressed. Both are sources of rapidly increasing emissions that the international community can no longer ignore.
6. The sixth building block of our strategy concerns emissions from deforestation. Today deforestation is responsible for about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions - even more than transport. This is a key issue that many developing countries want help in addressing. We have to find performance-based incentives and other tools that can halt deforestation as soon as possible.
7. Last but not least, it is equally essential to step up action on adaptation to climate change. We have no choice but to adapt since climate change is already happening and will continue getting more severe. It is particularly urgent to increase assistance to the poorest developing countries, which are the most vulnerable to climate change but the least able to cope with it.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Let me end by looking at the prospects for success in Bali.
There has been an intensive series of international meetings on climate change this year which have sent increasingly encouraging signals. Even the US is no longer opposing a negotiation process, and the domestic US debate is undoubtedly shifting toward shouldering a greater responsibility in the context of a post-2012 agreement. This is of course more than welcome. The Bali Roadmap needs to foresee an entry point for the US once it is ready to make an adequate contribution to the international
effort.
All things considered, my feeling is that prospects for Bali are good regarding establishing comprehensive negotiations and a clear deadline to complete them by. But, as always, the devil will be in the detail when it comes to ensuring that all our building blocks are adequately addressed in the Bali Roadmap.
I have no illusions that this will be an easy conference but I do believe there is a real opportunity for breakthrough. The international community must grasp it - before the window of opportunity to prevent dangerous climate change closes for good.
Thank you.
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