"Climate Change: Here and Now" Working Retreat - Final Report

Sumario: 6 September 2007, Stony Brook, NY - The European Commission and the Alliance of Small Island States, in cooperation with SUNY Stony Brook's School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences held a working retreat "Climate Change: Here and Now" at SUNY Stony Brook's President's Mansion Sunwood

Final Report

In the framework of the Group of Friends on Climate Change, a local network of 25 Missions to the UN with a cross regional composition, the EC Delegation, headed by H.E. Ambassador Fernando M. Valenzuela, and AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island Developing States), headed by H.E Ambassador Angus Friday of Granada, co-organised a working retreat at Stony Brook University on 6 September 2007.

It focused on "Climate change : Here and Now" and it was meant to raise the awareness of and encourage an informed discussion amongst the participants ahead of the upcoming High Level Event on Climate Change, hosted by the UN Secretary General on 24 September and later on in the negotiations for a post-Kyoto regime in Bali in December 2007.

The retreat aimed to deepen the understanding of the scientific evidence for global warming, and the current debate on possible future scenarios. It was enriched by a vivid presentation of the consequences a natural disaster of extraordinary magnitude, e.g. a hurricane, can have on the ecosystem of a small oceanic island (Grenada), and of the adaptation strategy undertaken to re-build the economy and to preserve its natural patrimony. The retreat also featured a stimulating presentation and discussion on the challenges of engaging the business community in the fight against climate change.

Session I: The Scientific Basis of the Current Understanding on Global Warming

1. Prof. Zhang provided a comprehensive summary of the current scientific understanding of global warming. He particularly pointed out what is known- and not known- about climate change.

2. A consensus exists within the scientific community on observed evidence linked to climate change. To wit: the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 20% over the last 50 years and the temperature has increased by an average of 0.6 ˚C over the last 100 years. These are indisputable facts. Both phenomena are related to the larger amount of greenhouse gases trapping outgoing infrared radiation. Without any actions to reduce CO2 emissions, the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to double by 2050. A consensus has also been established on the link between human activity and global warming, but the extent to which human activity is responsible is still under debate. In this regard, the IPCC report in 2007 concludes that;

"Most of the observed increase in the globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations".

3. Given technological constraints and the inability to simulate climate change in laboratory conditions, definite scientific proof of climate change cannot be achieved. Numerical models are unable to predict with a high degree of certainty how much, where and when global warming will take place. They do, conversely, predict that in case of a break-up of the Greenland land ice, sea levels will rise approximately 6-7 m.

4. The trend, however, is clear: our planet will experience an increase in global temperatures with serious potential consequences. Even if the consequences are uncertain in the short-term, they will manifest themselves in the long-term. Humanity is therefore called to face such a reality.

Session II: Current and Future Needs of Small Islands States: the case of Grenada after Ivan

5. Ambassador Angus Friday of Grenada discussed both the destructive consequences of climate change for small island states and the practical challenges that these states face in their adaptation strategies. Using the example of Hurricane Ivan of 2004, he underlined how the extensive damages made to Grenada's infrastructure and ecosystems were magnified by its characteristics as a low lying island. Hurricane Ivan is indicative of the new threats faced by small island states as a result of warmer oceans. Grenada was formerly classified as being outside of the "hurricane belt" by insurers such as Lloyds of London. However, even the small changes in ocean temperatures have exposed the island to threats that had hitherto not been experienced. Economically, the 2004 hurricane was especially devastating for Grenada since it destroyed 80% of the island's nutmeg crop- at the time Grenada's primary export. The dangers of economic overdependence were thus clearly exposed.

6. In response to the disaster, Grenada needed to rethink its adaptation strategies and design ways to ensure that the island becomes less vulnerable to future environmental and economic shocks. In addition to the traditional response strategies, such as increased coastal barriers and disaster management training, economic diversification was considered key to the country's future. Grenada began by taking stock of its national assets (i.e. its geographic location close to both EU and US markets, Caribbean location and shorelines ripe for tourism) and began re-visioning the future of the island. Tourism, specifically high-end hotels and conference centres, and the development of a "knowledge crescent" to kick-start the financial service industry, were considered to be the top priority areas.

7. Ambassador Friday made it clear that the induced revitalizing economic cycle connecting tourism, to agriculture and construction work, to the development of knowledge based industries, requires significant financing which can be hardly born by the country alone. Self-sustaining development and future independence from ODA has therefore been the main goal of national policy planners, along with strengthened cooperation with other small islands.

8. Linked to this, Ambassador Aisi of Papua New Guinea underlined that it is important to think creatively on a global level about what the developing countries can bring to the table of negotiations for post-2012 climate change regime. He suggested making deforestation part of the global deal by foreseeing how to provide access to lumber market under more advantageous conditions or financial compensation for the preservation of rainforests and marine diversity.

Session III: The Business of Global Environmental Governance

9. Professor Levy focussed on the involvement of business in global environmental governance. Whilst the private sector has been responding in variety of different ways to tackle climate change, few of these actions have resulted in a concrete reduction of emissions and in an efficient system of self-regulation. He used the analogies of "beehives" and "treadmills". On the one hand, we see these "beehives" of visible activities, such as the growth of hybrid vehicle sales, climate strategy teams and the "greening" of companies such as Walmart and General Electric. But is this really getting us anywhere, since we are also witnessing rising air travel, a coal revival in the US and low carbon prices? We therefore have this beehive or treadmill paradox. In this context, the existence of a "transatlantic divide" can be observed, with the European business leaders following the "green trend" more staunchly than their American counterparts.

10. The situation in the US can largely be explained by the structural characteristics of the business space and its relationship with the political leaders and civil society, as well as the contingent situation of the energy industry. For example, due to healthy domestic supplies, coal is still the primary source of electricity for the US. Furthermore, due to their poor energy performances in the past, the government bestows low subsidies for renewable energy sources. The US has traditionally been wary of international regulation, and US businesses seek to influence policy at the national rather than international level. On the contrary, in Europe the business mindset has been changing: businesses (such as BP for example) are focussing more on research and the possibilities of renewable sources of energy; it views differently the development of international and European regulatory frameworks; and it responds to the more organised pressure from civil society.

11. Professor Levy asserts that businesses are not moral actors- their raison d'etre is profit. On both sides of the Atlantic, despite the cultural differences, businesses react, invest and produce on the basis of similar economic considerations. Fresh thinking and action should be then focused on first-mover versus second-mover advantages, consumers' behaviour, the costs of diversification and the costs and opportunities of green markets. This implies that decisive action is needed at the political level. Decision-makers should provide businesses with large, stable and predictable incentives to fully engage the private sector in this area.

Key Speakers:
Prof. Minghua Zhang (Stony Brook University)
Prof. Henry Bokuniewicz (Stony Brook University)
Ambassador Angus Friday (Mission of Grenada)
Prof. David Levy (University of Massachusetts)
Ambassador Robert Aisi (Mission of Papua-New Guinea)

List of Participants:
H.E. Ambassador Fernando M. Valenzuela (Delegation of the European Commission to the United Nations)
Peter Schwaiger (European Commission)
Maria Francesca Spatolisano (European Commission)
Denis Baresch (European Commission)
Sarah Curran (European Commission)
Guiditta Scordino (European Commission)
Christopher Matthews (European Commission)
Dr. Shirley Strum Kenny (Stony Brook University)
Ambassador Angus Friday (AOSIS)
Ambassador Christopher Hackett (Mission of Barbados)
Ambassador Masao Nakayama (Mission of the Federated States of Micronesia)
Ambassador Ismat Jahan (Bangladesh)
Geertjan Buisman (Mission of the Netherlands)
Edmund Wellenstein (Mission of the Netherlands)
Eduardo R. Menez (Mission of Philippines)
Erik Hoeg (Mission of Denmark)
Samantha Pass (Mission of the United Kingdom)
Ambassador João Salgueiro (Mission of Portugal)
Miguel Silvestre (Mission of Portugal)
Peter Woeste (Mission of Germany)
Andriy Nikitov (Mission of Ukraine)
Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev (Mission of Ukraine)
Ambassador Philip Sealy (Mission of Trinidad and Tobago)
Raymond Landveld (Mission of Suriname)
Ambassador Jean-Marc Hoscheit (Mission of Luxembourg)
Philippe Donckel (Mission of Luxembourg)
Ahmad Rizal Purnama (Mission of Indonesia)
Marghareta Wahlstorm (UN)
Elina Palm (UN)
Carolina Jaramillo (UNEP)
Petya Hristova (European Commission)
Julia Heydemann (European Commission)

Agenda:

10 - 10:30 a.m. Registration and Coffee

10:45 a.m. Welcoming Remarks by Ambassador Fernando M. Valenzuela, Ambassador Angus Friday and Dr Shirley Strum Kennedy, President of Stony Brook University

11 - 11:45 a.m. Session I: Presentation by Professor Zhang of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS) of Stony Brook University; "The Scientific Basis of the Current Understanding on Global Warming"

11:50 - 12:40 a.m. Session II: Panel discussion by AOSIS members on the current and future needs of the Small Island States. Are existing adaptation methods sufficient?

1:00 - 2:30 p.m. Lunch with featured speaker Professor David Levy, co-editor of the books "The Business of Global Environmental Governance" and "The Business of Climate Change"

Ref: PRESS07-005EN
Fuente UE: Comisión Europea
Foro NU:
Fecha: 17/9/2007

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