Summary: 12 October 2009, Brussels - International negotiations were launched in December 2007 to draw up a United Nations agreement on tackling climate change for the period after 2012, when key provisions of the Kyoto Protocol will expire. The negotiations are due to be concluded at the Copenhagen climate conference on 7-18 December 2009. Three negotiating sessions at official level have been held so far this year, all in Bonn, Germany. The second last preparatory sessions for Copenhagen has taken place in Bangkok from 28 September to 9 October and the last one will be held in Barcelona from 2 to 6 November.
EU position
The EU is pressing for an ambitious and comprehensive agreement that will prevent global warming from reaching the dangerous levels - more than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature - that are projected by the scientific community if the world continues with business as usual.
Scientific evidence shows that, to put global emissions on a trajectory that is compatible with respecting this temperature ceiling, industrialised countries need to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 while developing countries should limit their rapid emissions growth to around 15-30% below projected business as usual levels in 2020. Global emissions need to peak before 2020 and then be cut by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.
The EU has shown leadership by committing unconditionally to cut its emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 and is implementing the climate and energy package (see IP/09/628) as well as a programme of energy efficiency measures to achieve this. Moreover, it has committed to scale up its emission cut to 30% on condition that
other industrialised countries agree to make comparable reductions and economically more advanced developing countries contribute adequately to a global deal.
However, emission targets put forward by industrialised countries so far add up to a reduction of only 9-16.5% below 1990 levels by 2020 (see Annex), while the big emerging economies have offered little in terms of concrete action to control their emissions.
On 10 September the Commission proposed a global blueprint for increasing international finance to help developing countries mitigate their emissions and adapt to climate change (see IP/09/1297). This gives a basis for the European Council to take an EU position on financing at the end of October.
State of play
Despite consensus at the U.N. climate change conference in Poznań, Poland, last December that the international negotiations should be shifted into higher gear, progress at the three negotiating sessions this year has been slow.
The negotiations are being conducted on two parallel 'tracks'. On one track the 192 Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which include the U.S., are discussing long-term cooperative action to combat climate change. On the other track the 184 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which do not include the U.S., are discussing post-2012 emission reduction commitments for industrialised countries.
This division of the negotiations into two tracks is a complicating factor and it would be desirable for the tracks to be merged sooner rather than later to prepare the way for a single agreement in Copenhagen. Indeed, there are already clear signs of the Convention track emerging as the main focus, while negotiations under the Kyoto track are practically stalemated. The EU wants to ensure, however, that all of the substance of the Kyoto track discussions - on further emission reductions by
industrialised countries and on other key issues, such as reform of the international carbon market and emission accounting rules for the forestry sector - is kept on the table as the two tracks come together.
Bangkok meeting
The informal negotiating session held in Bonn in August finished with a negotiating text under the Convention track of more than 250 pages, poorly structured and full of brackets. At the last meeting in Bangkok, Parties achieved a streamlining, rationalisation and restructuring of large parts of the negotiating text and have increased understanding of various proposals on the table. However, negotiations have not lead to any major substantive compromises nor convergence of views. Looking beyond
Bangkok, the amount of substantive technical and political work in the 8 weeks ahead of the start of the Copenhagen conference presents a formidable political challenge.
For the EU the essential elements are:
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