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Climate Change and Security: Follow-up recommendations by EUHR Solana

1. Introduction

In March 2008, the High Representative and the European Commission presented a joint report to the European Council, analysing the consequences of climate change for international security. The European Council welcomed this report, and requested further recommendations on appropriate follow-up.

The EU is well suited to taking forward the climate security agenda. Climate change represents a fundamental challenge, and should be in the mainstream of EU foreign and security policies and institutions. The issue has received particular focus in the report by the High Representative on the implementation of the European Security Strategy, presented to the European Council in December 2008.

The Council Secretariat and Commission have worked in close cooperation with incoming EU presidencies and others, building on a roadmap of action in follow-up to the March report.

The recommendations in this report are based on this work, in particular regional and thematic analysis by the Commission, Member States and others, along with expertise from civil society and think tanks. The report contains three main recommendations:

2. Regional Implications

Climate change will exacerbate existing drivers of instability, and may lead to disputes over trade routes, maritime zones and resources previously inaccessible. Adaptation is key.

Integration of climate change adaptation into development cooperation will help to enable vulnerable societies to cope with the additional pressure brought about by climate change.

Initial case studies on the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, undertaken in 2008, have revealed risks to development and security. The findings are summarised below. As a next step, studies should be undertaken on areas such as Afghanistan and its neighbourhood; South and East Asia; the Arctic; the Pacific; the Caribbean; and Latin America.

The joint report in March 2008 highlighted implications for the Arctic. In May 2008, on the invitation of Denmark/Greenland, foreign ministers from Arctic Ocean states (Denmark, Canada, Norway, Russia and the US) met at Ilulissat, in Greenland, and re-confirmed their commitment to the international legal framework which applies to the Arctic, and to the appropriate settlement of possible overlapping claims. In November 2008, the Commission published a communication, The European Union and the Arctic Region, which marks an important first step towards an EU Arctic policy, including on environmental and geopolitical challenges.

(a) Africa

Climate change is likely to have a serious impact on Africa. Main areas of concern are: The EU/Africa Strategy adopted in December 2007 covers activities in eight areas, including climate change and security. Building on this, our actions should focus on the following areas: (b) Middle East and North Africa

Climate change is likely to have an impact on social and political stability in the Middle East and North Africa in the future. The main areas of concern are: The Egyptian economy is already struggling to absorb some 600,000 new entrants each year into the labour market. Accordingly, social and economic consequences from possible loss of the Delta area could be severe. Building on initiatives undertaken within the framework of the Union for the Mediterranean and the European Neighbourhood Policy, our response should focus on the following: The Nile Basin Initiative is an obvious area for more work, which could be linked to the European Water Initiative. (c) Central Asia

Climate change could have a substantial impact on Central Asia. Main areas of concern are: The EU Central Asia Strategy has a substantial environmental component. Our response to the security challenges should build on this in the following areas: 3. Early Warning

Early action to address the security implications of climate change is essential. The current EU early warning instruments must focus more on climate change and environmental degradation, alongside other relevant variables such as governance, demographic pressures or regional conflicts. We should incorporate a wider range of climate-related data, to assist in identifying potential dangers and areas at particular risk. This could include: (i) food production; (ii) extreme weather events (cyclones, storm surges, flooding etc); (iii) drought/rainfall/desertification; (iv) retreat of glaciers, sea-ice etc; (v) water supply; (vi) migration related to environmental factors; (vii) global factors, such as commodity prices.

Information can be drawn from the EU Satellite Centre, national and European metrological agencies, Member States' national administrations and embassies, Commission delegations, EU Network of Energy Correspondents, and Joint Research Centre (JRC), as well as third countries and international organisations. New analytical methods and tools will be needed.

In the context of early warning and raising awareness, we will reinforce co-ordination with the relevant EU crisis management structures, to ensure that the impact of climate change is taken into account for strategic planning and capability development.

Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on energy security. Building on the recent Strategic Energy Review, Council and Commission could examine potential threats to supply (e.g. infrastructure damage; supplier instability).

4. Dialogue with Third Countries and Organisations

Since March 2008, the EU has continued to take a lead by raising the issue of climate change and security in our dialogue with third countries and international organisations. These have included key players such as the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, China, India, Brazil and Russia, and countries which are particularly affected, such as Nigeria, Indonesia, Israel, Egypt and in Central Asia. In the multilateral arena, meetings have been held with UNEP, International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC). We have also stimulated discussion outside government circles, in events such as the EU-Central Asia Security Forum and meetings organised by the European Parliament.

The EU is at the forefront of efforts to achieve a global and comprehensive new international agreement at Copenhagen in December 2009. Neither reducing emissions nor addressing the security dimension can be done by the EU alone. It needs a multilateral effort. At national and EU level, action is needed across different parts of government, parliaments, media and civil society. During 2009, the EU should focus on the following: Building on work to date, the EU is committed to engaging further with these organisations, including in the context of ENVSEC. This can draw on early warning analysis and should lead to a co-ordinated response. Trans-boundary water management is a particularly promising area for a multilateral approach.

5. Conclusion

As the joint High Representative and Commission report on Climate Change and International Security emphasised, the security implications of climate change are potentially vast. Our response needs to combine global actions with detailed understanding of the consequences at a local level. Knowledge and awareness will both be key.

We also have to promote our messages effectively, both externally and internally. To ensure better information flow, more coordination and greater coherence between initiatives at EU and Member State level, the Council Secretariat and Commission should set up a Brussels based network of focal points in national delegations. A central webpage to exchange analysis will be available shortly with the support of the JRC. At the same time, Council Secretariat and Commission should ensure effective co-ordination of public diplomacy efforts.

Progress on the issue of climate change and security as well as implementation of these recommendations should be reviewed by the Council in the second half of 2009.

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